Demise of the Euro?

I have had several people ask me lately about the Euro and my take on it. Well that is complicated. See I’m jaded in my view of politics and economics.

There are those, myself included, who feel like the Euro was doomed to fail before it ever began. After all how could they possibly expect to reconcile 17 different cultural and economic traditions in a way that would allow the currency to be effective and stable? The answer you often heard was “what do you mean how, this is how”. In other words proponents often felt this was the means rather than the end.

Everyone wants to be right…

I and everyone else who predicted the Euro’s demise wants to be right. We’re pining for that "I told you so" moment. So, many of the millions of Europeans forced to live with it hated it at first, but I would suggest that now, if the sovereign debt crisis wasn’t always on the news, many would say it’s okay, maybe even good. So who is putting forth the notion of its demise?
Well unfortunately there also others who would like to see it go down. There are the traders who shorted it. Entrepreneurs who see themselves held back by its strength. US nationalists who fear it taking over as the primary reserve currency. There are politicians who want to blame the current administrations of their countries to gain ground in the polls.

The shoe was on the other foot…

Remember this: November 12th 2007 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DhU8wJOuWkw the dollar didn’t go away. In fact it isn’t much worse now than then, even though there are plenty of reasons why it should be. Like this: http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d11696.pdf (page 131 has the real money shot). Let’s assume this is accurate. They lent 16 trillion with a “T” in emergency loans over 3 years. That would mean that the Federal Reserve Bank issued more in “emergency loans” over a 3 year period than the US had GDP in 2010. Yet our currency didn’t come crashing down. Meanwhile there were a lot of treasuries sold as well. So, what exactly does it take to crash a major currency?

Someone keeps screwing things up…

Let’s be honest a world where a benevolent ruler sees to the just distribution of resources to all and no one gets left behind is utopian in the truest sense of the word. Clearly if you cannot agree with the theorized maxims of Marxism you are a cold hearted selfish thug who needs to re-evaluate his own feelings. Or, you simply lack the imagination to ignore human nature for even a second. 6 of one half a dozen of the other… We are flawed, some more than others. Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. Greed begets more greed. At no time in history, at least to my less than vast knowledge of it, has this type of system worked in anything larger than a family, tribe or clan. Can you really name someone outside of your family or close friends whom you would entrust with your financial future and survival? I doubt you can. I can’t. In fact I wouldn’t trust half of my family. And yet miraculously somehow the land of the free and home of the brave succumb to the notion that a fearless leader and some elected representatives would somehow fix what was broken. And thus was born what is in my opinion the most stubborn of all economic fallacies: the law of unintended consequences as best described by Bastiat in the broken window fallacy which you can see explained here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnzUViUOTTo .

For every law, tax, subsidy, deduction, exception, exclusion, surcharge, fee, exemption, etc. etc. there will be an unforeseen effect on human behavior. Even if it is somehow expected it will likely be unquantifiable and thus its effect indefinable. Awesome!!! Let me give you one simple example from the tax code that was eventually exposed and partially remedied. It is called the SUV deduction. (Read about it here: http://www.selfemployedweb.com/suv-tax-deduction-changes.htm. ) So if you are self employed you could literally buy a ridiculously priced SUV you did not need, and use it to offset your business income by deducting and depreciating almost the full amount in the first year. Maybe you didn’t need an SUV and the payments were more than you wanted. The gas mileage was less than you had hoped for, but who can blame people for wanting to have the luxury SUV rather than watch that money go to Uncle Sam. Certainly Uncle Sam didn’t think of this when the law was lobbied for and even if he did he probably did not think of the environmental impact it would have.

Which leaves me thinking: What did the Euro planners intend? And, what are the unintended consequences? Well one of the worst side effects of interventionist ideas is their numbing effect on the people. The ideology perpetuates itself because it is nice to believe that there is someone willing to swoop in and save you. And for those who don’t romanticize the notion they at the very least become accustomed to someone telling them what to do.

So what does all of that have to do with the Euro?

The interventionists, that’s what. For nearly a hundred years Interventionists have been pressing on. Telling us they know better. They forced the Euro on the people and now they are fighting to keep it and no one really asks the question if they should. Who is making these decisions? Why must it stick around? I have my own practical interest in its survival, but I do not believe that they align with the interests of those making the decisions. What is driving this push for central EU government and uniformity? Methinks it would be easier to deregulate to individualists on a fair playing field than to regulate each other into equality. So why take the more complex means? Is it simply ego or something more sinister? Nevertheless experience has taught me never to trust those would like to govern you. It’s just like how you shouldn’t trust creepy old dudes who want to spend time with your kids.

Knowing what we know now…

Get your tin foil hats out, because this is where it gets weird and probably hard to follow. I do not believe for one second that anything that is done by our governments is done without the intent for ill-gotten gains. Maybe you have seen this video of Eisenhower warning us of the military industrial complex: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8y06NSBBRtY . Then of course the Operation Northwoods documents that are declassified basically confirm our own government’s willingness to deceive and possibly hurt us to further their agenda. To enjoy its creepiness in all its glory look here: http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/news/20010430/northwoods.pdf . Those who would scorn Haliburton and Blackwater and the Bush Jr. Administration as war mongers for profit, you are probably right. But tell me what is so different about them from any other administration? When was the last time the economic and foreign policy of your country changed dramatically? Post WWII, probably nothing at all. And the democrats have other alliances. There is no question who owns senators Frank and Dodd. Clinton is connected to a failed savings and loan from the 80’s most infamous bubble. For another take on where the democrats are receiving their marching orders I recommend reading: http://www.dunwalke.com/ and I think she is a democrat.

So now if you have made this journey down the rabbit hole with me, you know that there are those who want the Euro to die just to be right (for any number of reasons). And there are those who want it to die, because they love the dollar. You also realize that the Euro is a form of government intervention that like all government intervention, like the broken window fallacy, has hidden unintended consequences. You also saw a warning in 1960 to beware of the military industrial complex and a document that indicates why. That, my friends, provides the backdrop for my answer.

I just don’t know. I don’t know if this is a misguided naive attempt to make things better or a sinister plan to usurp economic control over other weaker EU countries. Maybe it’s both. Either way the parties involved are all-in so there is no point in folding now. Thus the bettor in me says -200 on the Euro sticking around.